Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
